The endless parade of red carpet looks, precursor prizes and long media campaigns will culminate in sealed envelopes voted by over 7000 members of the AMPAS (Academy of Motion Pictures and Sciences) this Sunday. Oscar Voting ended on Tuesday and with this we come to the end of the long award season. This year the Academy has tried to redeem itself over the #OscarsSoWhite blemish with the most diverse set of nominees with 3 best picture nominees with black protagonists (Moonlight, Fences, Hidden Figures).
But will this be enough to make a political statement in Trump’s America? Ellen DeGeneres said in her 2014 opening monologue – “There are two possibilities in today’s ceremony – that 12 Years a Slave wins best picture, or that ‘you’re all racists”. This will be answered on Sunday night, when Oscar voters choose between an escapist musical and a personal take on society.
Until then here are my thoughts on who could be probable winners at the Oscars.
Best Picture- La La Land
Last year the Best Picture race was a three way fight between Revenant, Spotlight and the Big Short- with Spotlight narrowly winning. The 2017 award season also seemed to be going in a similar way in early December- between La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. The Golden Globe awards, often not taken seriously proved to be a major game changer this year. La La land broke the highest win record with 7 wins. Moonlight ousted Manchester By the Sea to win Best Movie (Drama) surging into the Oscar race with widespread support in the backdrop of the political situation in USA. La La Land seemed to be garnering a backlash with many not connecting with the film- It even failed to get a SAG Best Ensemble nomination.
Nevertheless, on Oscar nomination day, La La Land created another record- 14 nominations- the highest ever, along with Titanic and All about eve. But La la Land survived even the hiccup of Hidden Figures which not only won the SAG Best Film award but also beat La La Land at the US Box office. La La Land swept the guild awards where it took the top prize in every guild except WGA (Screenplay).
To understand the reason why there is such widespread support for La La Land across various guilds, we must understand who constitutes these guilds- it Is the people who make the movies- the actors, the directors, the writers, costume designers, cameramen, editors etc. Since all these people work in the Hollywood movie industry- they obviously want to see a film about their live. And since La La Land has already won most of the guild awards, most of whom are also Oscar voters- it is very probable it will take the best picture.
I agree that a lot of people might not prefer La la land as the best film of 2016- some may have liked Moonlight more, some Hidden Figures or any other. But, Oscar uses a preferential voting- voters rank the films as per their preference and submit it. Even if most voters don’t have La La Land as their no. 1 choice, it is likely that they will have it as their 2nd or 3rd choice and that would be enough for La La land to take home the biggest prize.
Chance of Winning- 90% (Could Win- Moonlight)
Best Director- Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
No one can disagree with the fact that musicals in Hollywood are hell of a risk- they can go either way and if there is one person who brought all departments working in the film together to create a stunning piece of cinema, it is Damien Chazelle the director of la la Land. This prize belongs to him.
Chance of winning- 90% (Could win- Moonlight)
Best Actor- Casey Affleck (Manchester By The Sea)
It seemed like this award was Casey Affleck’s to win until the SAG happened. Backlash against Casey Affleck’s past allegations of rape has made two time winner Denzel Washington the new favorite for this award. Personally, I felt Denzel’s performance was too flashy and was very dialogue dependent. On the other hand Casey Affleck’s quiet, understated performance especially in the breakdown scene with Michelle Williams is my favorite performance of last year and it deserves the Oscar.
Chance of Winning- 55% (Could win- Casey Affleck)
Best Actress- Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman may have given the year’s best act in Jackie but the Oscars aren’t just about who gave the best performance- it’s about a combination of love for the star and love for character. The Academy loves to award young upcoming actresses with this award (Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson) and Emma Stone fits the bill perfectly. Not to forget that she is the definitive star of La La Land, the story revolves around her and the film is remembered for her ‘yellow dress’, her ‘Audition’ song and her choice at the end. Personally I would not mind Isabelle Huppert winning but Stone has already won the Globe, SAG and the BAFTA- she is almost a lock. This will make it the first time in 13 years that the Best Picture and Best Actress are for the same film.
Chance of Winning- 80% (Could win- Isabelle Huppert)
Best Supporting Actor- Mahershala Ali
He may not have been nominated at the Globes or he may not have the longest onscreen time but he has won the SAG and most voters still remember his dynamic speech at the SAG about Trump’s Travel ban. Dev patel has become a recent favorite to win this after his BAFTA win, but even Harvey Weinstein can’t take this away from Moonlight.
Chance of Winning- 70% (Could Win- Dev Patel)
Best Supporting Actress- Viola Davis
Two words, Viola Davis. End of discussion.
Chance of Winning- Are you kidding me?
Best Original Screenplay- Manchester By the Sea
Manchester by the sea is a beautiful film and the fluidity with which the narrative unfolds deserves this win. La La land may be skilfully made, but everyone agrees it was a light film, yes even in the last 20 minutes.
Chance of Winning- 80% (Could Win- La La Land)
Best Adapted Screenplay – Moonlight
Arrival won Adapted Screenplay at the WGA, but there Moonlight was nominated for Original Screenplay. Although Moonlight may win in this category at the Oscars, Arrival would give it a fight for sure.
Chance of Winning- 70% (Could Win- Arrival)
Best Animated Feature – Zootopia
A Disney movie talking about racial discrimination with a female lead. And earning a Billion Dollars worldwide. How can this not win? For people supporting The Red Turtle, Sorry I can’t watch a dialogue-less animated film.
Chance of Winning- 90% (Could Win- Kubo and Two Strings)
Best Foreign language Film- The Salesman
It’s interesting how Toni Erdman fell off the lead and Iran’s Salesman became the reply Oscar voters wanted to give Trump for his travel ban for 7 Muslim countries. I am yet to see the film, but Asghar Farhadi has never disappointed me.
Chance of Winning- 60% (Toni Erdman)
Best Original Song- City of Stars, La La Land
In 2014, songwriter Robert Lopez became the youngest EGOT winner after winning an Oscar for Frozen’s ‘Let It Go’. This year thanks to another Disney film, Moana, Lin-Manuel Miranda is up for his EGOT. But it’s unlikely that he will win it over the one song La La Land has been promoting all over – City of Stars. Unless La la land splits its vote over two of its nominated songs and Moana wins.
Chance of Winning- 65% (How Far I’ll Go, Moana)
Other Awards-
Best Score – La La land (Could Win- Jackie)
Best Costume Design – La La Land (Could win- Jackie)
Best Editing- La La Land (Could win- Arrival)
Best Cinematography- La La Land (Could Win- Arrival)
Best Production Design- La La Land (Could Win- Arrival)
Best Sound Editing- La La Land (Could Win- Hacksaw Ridge)
Best Sound Mixing- La La Land (Could Win- Hacksaw Ridge)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling- Star Trek (Could Win- A man called Ove)
Best Visual Effects- The Jungle Book (Could Win- Rogue One)
Best Documentary- O.J. Made in America (Could Win- 13th)
Best Animated Short- Piper (Could win- Borrowed Time)
The Oscars 2017 will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. See you at the Oscars!
The Commentator 