It’s my favorite time of the year. The expectations, the disappointments, the wildcards and the snubs- There’s nothing like Award Season. And what is Award Season without the Oscars, nominations for which will be announced tomorrow 24th January, 5:18 AM (PT), 6:45 PM (IST). There are some pressing questions that the nominations will answer-
- Will La La Land Break the record of most nominations (14) at this year Nominations?
- Will Martin Scorcese get a Best Director Nod for Silence this year? (He has been nominated for EVERY film he has directed in this century- Gangs of New York, Aviator, Departed, Hugo, Wolf of Wall Street)
- Will Deadpool create history by getting an Oscar nomination in the non-technical categories?
- Who will be the nominees in the super competitive Best Actress race, where no one other than Stone and Portman are a lock.
- What will be the fate of Loving and Jackie, whose momentum seems to have fizzled out.
While we wait with fingers crossed for the announcement, here’s my two cents on the Oscar nominations this year.
Best Picture
While one would expect any Best Picture discussion this year to begin with La La Land, there’s one film that’s at a better position than La la land in the award race. That’s Moonlight. The journey of an African American boy to adulthood has so far won the topmost prize at almost every critics award ceremony-
- LA Critics Award
- Chicago Critics Award
- San Francisco Critics Award
- Toronto Critics Award
- Dallas Film Critics
- Denver Film Critics
- Austin Film Critics Award
- Indie Wire Critics Poll
- National Society of Film critics, to name a few.
Coming into the New Year it seemed like it was a battle between La La land and Manchester by the Sea for the Best Picture at Oscars 2017. But in a dramatic turn of events, Moonlight trumped Manchester by the Sea to take the topmost prize at the Golden Globes and became the strongest threat to La La land.
Additionally Moonlight and Manchester By the Sea are the only 2 films this year to have been nominated by all the 4 guilds-
- PGA’s Best Picture award
- DGA’s Best Director award
- SAG’s Best Ensemble award
- WGA’s Best Screenplay award
Taking nothing away from La La Land– It is no doubt the most buzzed film this award season. It has earned close to $150M at the box office so far and has miraculously kept its momentum from August till February and is still the film to beat on Oscar night. The one issue is that it did not get nominated for SAG Best Ensemble award- but that could be because the SAG voters saw it as a 2 person film. Anyways, a nomination is sure for it. Hence three films are locked for nomination- La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester.
Next comes Lion, which a month back was not even sure of being nominated. But after the Guild Awards, Lion bagged a PGA, WGA and not one but 2 DGAs. This could be the ‘Room’ of 2017, thanks to the strong performance by 8 year old Sunny Pawar, and I think it has the 4th highest chance of getting nominated.
Next is Arrival which has also been nominated for the same number of guild awards as La La Land– losing only the SAG Ensemble nomination. The only thing against it is its sci fi genre, which does not exactly scream Oscar. But Amy Adam’s sincere performance and the technical superiority will definitely take it all the way to a nomination.
These are the 5 films I think will definitely cross the boundary. The rest will depend on how many film does the Academy decide to nominate this year.
There is Fences and Hacksaw Ridge, both of which are helmed by Actor turned Directors and both are getting appreciated for the acting. Hacksaw may suffer due to Mil Gibson’s controversial image.
Another film which so far has not done well at the Awards is Hidden Figures, but I expect it to do well at the Oscar nominations given the kind of standing ovations it’s been getting in theatres across America. I would also not be surprised if Taraji P Henson manages a Best Actress nod for this film.
The biggest surprise this Oscar Season has been Martin Scorcese’s Silence– which has been called a long, hard watch and shut out at every award ceremony. Will the Academy be softer to their favourite director of all time? Silence won’t be nominated for Best Picture but could get a Director nod for Scorcese, as he is revered in the Academy circles.
What about Deadpool? It did manage a historic PGA nod and a best picture nomination for it would be historic and would shake up the entire industry. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Nocturnal Animals, has shot out from the BAFTAs and could be a wild card. Then there is Loving, a film about inter racial love which has campaigned extensively and spent a lot of money but isn’t getting recognized.
I would be thrilled if the animated Zootopia makes the list. We haven’t seen anything animated since Toy Story 3 in this list and Zootopia deserves all the love.
But like every year, I sense that the Academy will chose an outlier- a wildcard which is not in anyone’s radar- something like an Amour or a Philomena. Hope that is 20th Century Women this year.
Best Actor
The Best Actor race this year is not very competitive and is over before it has begun- Casey Affleck is a sure shot win in this category. Ryan Gosling and Andrew Garfield are both guaranteed a nomination each- for their immensely liked characters in La la Land and Hacksaw Ridge. Denzel Washington for Fences is another performance that’s hard to ignore. That leaves us one spot. Personally I would love to see Ryan Reynolds, make history by getting nominated for a $700M grosser Deadpool. But I think the Academy will go with either Viggo Mortensen for Captain Fantastic or Joel Edgerton for Loving.
Best Actress
The tightest race at the Oscars this year is the Best Actress category. Such was the competition this year, that even Viola Davis was not confident of being nominated and opted for the less crowded supporting actress category (Where she is all but assured of a win). The past year has seen as many as 10 exemplary performances, of which only 2 performances are locked of nomination- Emma stone and Natalie Portman. The globes have propelled French veteran Isabelle Huppert as a big bet, but it should be understood that the HFPA are foreign critics and the Oscar voters might not be so aware of her work. Elle did not even make it to the last 9 films for Foreign Language category. Nevertheless a nomination for her work in Elle would be criminal to ignore.
6-0, yes that is how many times Amy Adams would have lost the Oscar in a month. This year in the running for two films- Arrival and Nocturnal Animals, Adams is likely to be nominated for her work as a linguist in Arrival. That leaves one spot which is really tricky. I would love if Annette Benning gets this spot for 20th Century Women, a film which is being unfairly overlooked. But I think this last spot will go to Ruth Negga for Loving. Frankly, I would be happy as long as I don’t see Meryl Streep in this list.
Supporting Actor
This is one category which has almost locked all of its 5 nominations- atleast 4 for sure. Mahersala Ali for Moonlight, Dev Patel for Lion, Jeff Bridges for Hell or High Water and Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea. The 5th spot is mostly going to Hugh grant for Florence Fester Jenkins, who is also nominated for SAG. If not him either Aaron Taylor Johnson who has managed a Golden Globe win and a BAFTA nomination, or maybe Kevin Costner for Hidden Figures.
Supporting Actress
This category should be renamed as the Oscar for playing the Best Mother of a small boy. Viola Davis, Nicole Kidman and Naomi Harris all play the mother of a young boy in Fences, Lion and Moonlight respectively, and all of them are sure of getting nominated.
Until October, Michelle Williams was winning this hands down for her heart wrenching 10 min performance in Manchester by The Sea. But then Viola Davis chose to go supporting and anyone who has seen The Help knows Viola deserved an Oscar 5 years ago. So however much I am happy for Viola winning this award, I am equally sad for Michelle Willaims, who will be nominated for her 4th Oscar this year, without winning any.
The last nomination spot will be taken by either Octavia Spencer or Janelle Monae for Hidden Figures, although I would love if Greta Grewig gets the 5th spot for 20th Century Women. She does amazing work year after year (Frances Ha, Mistress America, Maggie’s Plan) and deserves to be nominated.
And the nominees for the Oscars will be
Best Picture-
- Moonlight
- La La Land
- Manchester by the Sea
- Lion
- Arrival
- Fences
- Hidden Figures
- Hell or High Water
- Hacksaw Ridge
- 20th Century Women
Best Director
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
- Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
- Garth Davis, Lion
Best Actor
- Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
- Ryan Gosling, La la Land
- Denzel Washington, Fences
- Andrew Garfeild, Hacksaw Ridge
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Best Actress
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Amy Adams, Arrival
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle
- Ruth Negga, Loving
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Dev Patel, Liom
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis,Fences
- Michelle Williams,Manchester by the Sea
- Naomie Harris,Moonlight
- Nicole Kidman,Lion
- Octavia Spencer,Hidden Figures
Best Original Screenplay
- La La Land
- The Lobster
- Manchester by the Sea
- Hell or High Water
- Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Moonlight
- Fences
- Lion
- Nocturnal Animals
- Arrival
Best Animated Feature
- Zootopia
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- Moana
- The Red Turtle
- Finding Dory
Who do you think will make the cut tomorrow? Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
Also check out ‘Ten Months Too Soon: Oscar Predictions 2017‘ when I predicted the Oscar Nominees for 2017 Oscars a year ago.